Romney had high hopes to win Ohio. A win in Ohio would have proven Romney’s decision to run on a message of repealing the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), correct. Nonetheless, he lost the state to President Obama by a razor-thin margin. The loss is still a surprise to many Republican operatives; including Karl Rove. Their polling showed a nearly impossible for Obama to win the state. But the question remains, how did two campaigns come up with two very different predictions?
Ohio demographics in 2011 included 10 million people
- 84% white/ 12% black / 3% Latino
Ohio voter demographics on Election Day included 5 million voters
- 79% white / 15% black / 3% latino
- 79% of voters were white but they represent 84% of the state (-5% decrease)
- 15% of voters were black but they only represent 12% of the state (+3 increase)
- 3% of the voters were latino and they make up 3% of the state. (0% change remaining flat)
5 million Ohioans voted.
- If 84% of the voters were White and matched the Ohio demographics – Romney based on exit polling would have had +500,000 more people and would have won the state.
But only 79% were White= 4M people
- 41% of Whites voted for Obama = 1.6M
- 57% of Whites voted for Romney = 2.3M
15% were Black = 750,000 people
- 96% of Blacks voted for Obama = 720,000
- 4% of Blacks voted for Romney = 30,000
3% were Latino = 150,000 people
- 54% of Latinos voted for Obama = 81,000
- 42% of Latinos voted for Romney = 63,000
Voting Totals in the end (approximates)
Obama = 2,401,000 votes
Romney = 2,393,000 votes
1 Man 1 Mind