How Obama Won The Buckeye State

Romney had high hopes to win Ohio. A win in Ohio would have proven Romney’s decision to run on a message of repealing the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), correct. Nonetheless,  he lost the state to President Obama by a razor-thin margin. The loss is still a surprise to many Republican operatives; including Karl Rove. Their polling showed a nearly impossible for Obama to win the state. But the question remains, how did two campaigns come up with two very different predictions?

Here’s how:

Ohio demographics in 2011 included 10 million people

  • 84% white/ 12% black / 3% Latino

Ohio voter demographics on Election Day included 5 million voters

  • 79% white / 15% black / 3% latino

Ohio

  • 79% of voters were white but they represent 84% of the state (-5% decrease)
  • 15% of voters were black but they only represent 12% of the state (+3 increase)
  • 3% of the voters were latino and they make up 3% of the state. (0% change remaining flat)

5 million Ohioans voted.

  • If 84% of the voters were White and matched the Ohio demographics – Romney based on exit polling would have had +500,000 more people and would have won the state.

But only 79% were White= 4M people

    • 41% of Whites voted for Obama = 1.6M
    • 57% of Whites voted for Romney = 2.3M

15% were Black = 750,000 people

    • 96% of Blacks voted for Obama = 720,000
    • 4% of Blacks voted for Romney = 30,000

3% were Latino  = 150,000 people

    • 54% of Latinos voted for Obama = 81,000
    • 42% of Latinos voted for Romney = 63,000

Voting Totals in the end (approximates)

Obama = 2,401,000 votes

Romney = 2,393,000 votes

1 Man 1 Mind

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